The Federal Reserve Finally Cut Rates

The Federal Reserve Finally Cut Rates

What Does This Mean for the Fresno Real Estate Market?

Based on the latest information about the Federal Reserve's rate cut yesterday (September 17, 2025) and their projected additional cuts, here's how this will likely affect the Fresno real estate market:

Immediate Impact on Mortgage Rates

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points yesterday, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, and mortgage rates could fall by about 50 basis points by the end of 2025, possibly even below 6%. The 30-year mortgage rate has already dropped to 6.13%, the lowest level since late 2022.

With two more anticipated rate cuts before year-end, mortgage rates "are likely to continue trending toward the 6% range by the end of the year, although they are still expected to remain above 6%".

How This Will Affect Fresno's Market

For Buyers:

• Improved Affordability: Lower mortgage rates will reduce monthly payments, potentially bringing more buyers into Fresno's market
• Increased Competition: As affordability improves, you may face more competition, potentially reversing some of the buyer advantages we've seen recently
• Timing Considerations: The current 47-day average time on market may start to shrink as more buyers enter the market

For Sellers:

• Expanded Buyer Pool: Lower rates should increase the number of qualified buyers for your property
• Potential Price Support: Increased demand could help support the current median price of $420,000 and potentially accelerate appreciation
• Faster Sales: The recent trend toward longer market times may reverse

The Catch: Rate Cuts Can Complicate Housing Markets

Here's an important consideration: "Lower mortgage rates may not make it easier to buy a home. In fact, it could make it more difficult and lead to higher home prices". This happens because increased buyer demand from improved affordability can drive up home prices, potentially offsetting the benefits of lower rates.

What This Means for Fresno Specifically

Given Fresno's current market conditions with 3.5 months of inventory and increasing active listings (1,543 properties), the rate cuts could:

1. Accelerate the Return to Market Balance: The current buyer-favorable conditions may not last as long as expected
2. Support Price Growth: The modest 4.9% year-over-year price appreciation could accelerate
3. Reduce Days on Market: The recent increase from 24 to 47 days may reverse course
4. Increase Bidding Activity: Multiple offers could return to some market segments

Strategic Implications

If You're Buying in Fresno: Act relatively quickly to take advantage of the current inventory levels and seller concessions before increased competition returns.

If You're Selling: You may want to price more aggressively now, as the market dynamics that have required conservative pricing may shift in your favor.

If You're Waiting: The "balanced market" window may be shorter than expected, as rate cuts could reignite buyer demand faster than inventory can keep pace.

The Fed's dovish stance suggests they're prioritizing economic stimulus, which historically benefits real estate markets. For Fresno, this could mean a return to a more seller-friendly environment sooner than the current market trends might suggest.

All our Best!